The Affordability Earthquake
The 2025 Elections and Why What You Say in Politics Matters
November 4th, 2025, was Election Night. Democrats exceeded all expectations.1
Abigail Spanberger won the VA Governor’s race by 4% more than expected.
Mikie Sherrill won the New Jersey Governor’s race by nearly 10% more than expected.
Democrats Alicia Johnson and Peter Hubbard won huge victories in Georgia, both outperforming Kamala Harris’ 2024 totals by more than 28%.
Many will beg the question, “Why?” The answer is simple: costs and affordability. Donald Trump and the Republican Party were swept into power and given complete control of the federal government in 2024. The reasons were simple: costs and affordability. In 2024, Republicans talked at length about inflation, gas, housing, and grocery prices. This message won them many voters who had lukewarm feelings toward Donald Trump. The affordability message paired famously with Joe Biden’s seemingly tone-deaf response. For most Americans, if they heard anything at all about costs and the economy from Joe Biden, they heard him say, “America has the strongest economy in the world.” Those words mean little to someone who recently had to add to their credit card debt to get groceries.
Put simply, Republicans had a message that worked, and they won. But here’s the dirty little secret of modern politics in America: words matter, and people expect politicians to do what they say they’re going to do. It’s true. Trust is waning and frustration is growing, but generally, politicians do what they say they are going to do.
So when they do the opposite, voters notice.
Here is a partial list of the cost-increasing things Donald Trump has done since taking office:
Across-the-board tariffs, taxing products and groceries for everyday folks, and inputs for American manufacturers.
Cuts to Medicaid and other health care provisions will cause some 15 million Americans to lose their health coverage.
Cuts to Affordable Care Act subsidies are causing costs for families to go up.
Cuts to SNAP food benefits for 40 million during the government shutdown, and 3 million young adults going forward.
Eliminated wind and solar projects that were about to bring energy online to slow-rising utility rates.
Those are actions that raise costs for families. But it’s not just Trump’s actions, it’s his words too. Our analysis of Trump’s Truth Social posts shows that “costs and affordability” ranked #7 among his topics, making up just over 5% of all his posts since Inauguration Day.
And Trump doubled down after November 6th, 2025, saying, “I don’t want to hear about the affordability.” Stirring rhetoric from a man who won on affordability just 12 months ago!
The message has been different from Democrats running in 2025. From Zohran Mamdani in New York City to Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, very, very different types of Democrats were united under the affordability banner.
Spanberger talked about onboarding cheap energy quickly and making sure large utility users, like data centers, pay their fair share.
Mamdani talked about building more housing and streamlining government licensing to lower costs for small businesses.
Donald Trump is currently in the process of building a $300 million ballroom while costs keep rising. We know millions of everyday Americans are struggling. They will continue to struggle if things don’t change. Republicans are still in full control of the federal government, so for Democrats, the message, the attention, and the ideas matter. Democrats can provide Americans a clear choice over the next year: an affordability agenda and a message that speaks to folks’ very real concerns, or an out-of-touch president and a Republican party that’s happy to ignore the problem while they build a marble palace.
The American people sent a message this election. If Democrats listen, 2026 can provide a historic opportunity to change power in Washington and get things done for the American people.
Based on an average of public polls (RealClearPolitics, FiftyPlusOne, etc.)